Tag Archives: Equities
Popular (NYSE: BPOP) hit an all-time low in 2011 of $10.80, down 96% since its 2005 highs of $244.23; a devastating blow to long term shareholders. Luckily, blue skies are just around the corner for this regional bank. The weekly chart below shows the story of the past 3 years price action. As mentioned, prices hit a low at $10.80 in late 2011 and have since rebounded some 163% to today’s price of $29.49. Prices were able to regain the weekly 200 SMA resistance in early 2013, and a golden cross of the 50 EMA crossing above the 200 SMA is on the horizon. For the past 3 months prices have been in a consolidation phase forming a bull flag between $26 and $29.75.
To further our conviction it’s The Technical Breakout Trader’s advantage to analyze multiple timeframes. From the weekly chart, we take it down to the daily chart for better entry points and to confirm our weekly analysis. Below we can see that $29.75 area has been resistance for the past 3 months from the large price appreciation in January of 2013. A breakout above this area would warrant a LONG entry with stop losses just below. Our target would be the $36 next weekly resistance area from February 2013 representing a ~20% gain. After a likely pullback, the $42.50 resistance in just in reach for a ~45% gain. Learn more over at The Technical Breakout Trader.
Madison Square Garden (NYSE: MSG) has been on a solid up-trend since its debut in 2010. For the past 3 months MSG has been stuck in a price channel between $55 and $58 despite market strength. On the weekly chart we see that prices have been in heavily overbought conditions based on the RSI, and the MACD has formed a bearish crossover from its large run-up. This could be seen as consolidation, but one should let market prices dictate the next move whether that be up or down. A breakdown under $55 could bring a pull-back in prices down to the 50 EMA at $46.25 slightly above past resistance at $45 and still be in an up-trend. A breakout above $58 would be a sign the consolidation is over and prices are set to make new highs.
What to do; Based on the daily chart below, a trader can profit from a movement in price in two ways.
- Prices close below $55 signaling a breakdown, which is also in confluence with a breakdown below the 50 EMA support currently at $55.21. Traders can SELL SHORT with a buy stop just above the top of the channel at $58 with a target price of $46 just above the 200 SMA support.
- Prices close above $58 signaling a breakout of recent consolidation and a continuation of the up-trend. Traders can BUY on a close above $58 with a stop loss just below the bottom of the channel at $55. A trailing stop-loss could then be utilized since no resistance exists above the $58 all-time highs.
See the original article at Benzinga.com HERE!
Dean Foods (DF) has rebounded from a 4 year downtrend beginning in 2007 when the stock was at an all-time high of $37.48. Through 2011 DF has lost ~82% of its value for shareholders hitting a low of $7.13. Since then, DF has reversed some of this damage and begun a new uptrend making higher highs and higher lows until recently when prices stalled out at $19.10.
The weekly chart below shows a large ascending triangle formation with resistance around $19. Prices have managed to regain the 200 SMA, and posted a very bullish golden cross in October 2012. The MACD is showing some bearish divergence, but is still printing above the zero line which is bullish as well. Should prices breakout of the $19 resistance, $22 is the next weekly resistance representing a ~17% upside.
The daily chart shows a similar story with $19 acting as multi-month resistance beginning in late October of 2012. Since then prices have traded in a range between the $19 resistance and $15 support. With the S&P 500 making new highs today, 4/10/13, the chances are that DF will see some momentum and make another run towards the $19 area. Keep Dean Foods on your radar for a breakout to $22 for a chance at a 17% return.
Coke is breaking out today. 4/9/13, over $40.80 resistance after strongly defending the 20 EMA yesterday to continue its up-trend. The weekly chart below shows the continuation breakout after KO defended its $40 past breakout support level. The MACD is rising along with the RSI which is bullish moving forward.
The daily chart shows the strength in the bounce yesterday off the 20 EMA and $40 support level. The 2% move is very bullish, and prices should continue to appreciate with continued market strength.
The Technical Breakout Trader utilizes multiple time-frame analysis to determine high probability setups in the markets. This strategy can be applied to the major market indices to get a feel for the overall market condition and the future direction. Below is a multiple time-frame analysis of the S&P 500.
Weekly Time-frame Analysis;
Stocks have been on a tear since the early January breakout over 1475 resistance from September 2012 highs. Prices are just below the 2007 highs of 1576 sitting at 1514 ending 2/28/13. Last week the SPX printed a weekly doji candle signaling indecision in the market. The MACD is flattening out and selling volume is picking up indicating a pull back may be near. It’s interesting to note the last two pullbacks have found support around the weekly 50 EMA which currently sits at 1414.30.
Daily Time-frame Analysis;
The SPX has been whipping traders up and down looking for direction recently. 1515 was a key resistance level that was broken for 5 trading days before seeing a sell off last Wednesday, 2/20/13 putting it back in its trading range between 1495-1515. The bottom of the range, 1495 was the key support that was compromised on Monday’s sell off only to be regained on Tuesday after price found support at the 50 EMA. Today’s action was very interesting. The market showed continued strength following yesterdays big gain up until the very last 10 minutes of trading before falling slightly below 1515. 1500 is a significant psychological level to watch as well.
Hourly Time-frame Analysis;
Intra-day market analysis on the hourly time-frame shows todays action as mentioned above. 1525 was rejected at the end of the day, and is a key level to watch to be broken for continued upside in the SPX. The MACD is turning down and RSI pointing south indicates the end of day weakness may continue into tomorrow. If so, I believe 1500 will be tested again.
We need to see prices retake 1515 and breakout over 1525 for more up side in the rally. If this occurs a test of 2007 highs of 1576 is more likely. However, the weekly chart indicates a pullback is becoming more and more probable. If 1500 is broken again, and both the daily 20 & 50 EMA’s break down it would suggest a pull back is happening after all. If so, I would look for support around 1410 the weekly 50 EMA. Until either of these scenarios play out, I expect more choppiness and indecision in the S&P 500.
Bank of America attempted to break out over its recent trading range between $11-$12.20 but failed. BAC also attempted to breakdown below $11, but found support. On the weekly chart, BAC is struggling to hold a breakout past its 200 SMA sitting at $11.63. The MACD has posted a bearish crossover on the weekly time frame as well.
The daily chart shows the range between $12.20-$11 I mentioned above. With recent MACD divergence chances are the upside momentum is slowing down. The indecision in the overall market has shown up in BAC price action and should dictate the future outcome of BAC. Should $11 breakdown, $10 should act as lower support. If the $12.20 resistance breaks, a new uptrend will be confirmed on the weekly chart with next resistance around $14.
Getty Realty Corporation Holding Co. broke its 200 SMA on the weekly chart last week running into overhead resistance at $19.50 from July 2012 highs. MACD is showing divergence in late 2011 now turned into convergence as shares make higher lows, an indicator of an uptrend.
Daily chart confirms $19.50 resistance level. Should the stock breakout above this level, the uptrend should continue representing a high probability long setup. The daily MACD had a bullish cross last week and is showing convergence with the recent price appreciation. GTY is definitely one for the watch list for the coming weeks ahead.
Pandora has been revolutionary in changing the way consumers listen to music, matching their tastes to similar bands/artists. But, Pandora’s stock has not shown this losing half its value since it’s IPO from $14 to lows of $7.50. Recently consumers and friends of mine have complained about the increased ad interference and new competition from Spotify. Allot of them have already made the switch, sighting numerous additional benefits with Spotify.
However, from a technical point of view Pandora seems to be setting up for a reversal ever since bottoming in November of 2012.
The weekly chart shows a breakout from its downtrend beginning at the IPO, and also a breakout of May/September 2012 highs at $12. The MACD has pushed above the zero line for the first time and RSI remains in bullish territory.
The daily chart shows a similar story. Price broke out over $12 on February 12th and has continued higher stalling at $13.50. Today’s weakness could be viewed as profit taking and may set up another long opportunity in the near future. Technicals paint a rosy picture for the future, but the Spotify competition needs to be taken into account.
HLF has been the center of attention over the past month, and has produced some great trading opportunities. Icahn has declared he is long, while Ackman has publicly called Herbalife a pyramid scheme and is short. Pick a side in the debate over at marketfy! http://marketfy.com/ackman-vs-icahn/
Here is a technical look at HLF
Weekly shows things are looking ugly for HLF shares, recent $45 support was lost after Ackman’s announcement. Shares are fighting to hold the 200 SMA.
Daily channel between $52.50-$45 was broken and shares are fighting to get back that ground. The V dip at the end of December could be only temporary. Its a very debatable stock with both long and short views. Choose your side!
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