Tag Archives: Technical Analysis
Trade the Channel Breakout in Madison Square Garden
Madison Square Garden (NYSE: MSG) has been on a solid up-trend since its debut in 2010. For the past 3 months MSG has been stuck in a price channel between $55 and $58 despite market strength. On the weekly chart we see that prices have been in heavily overbought conditions based on the RSI, and the MACD has formed a bearish crossover from its large run-up. This could be seen as consolidation, but one should let market prices dictate the next move whether that be up or down. A breakdown under $55 could bring a pull-back in prices down to the 50 EMA at $46.25 slightly above past resistance at $45 and still be in an up-trend. A breakout above $58 would be a sign the consolidation is over and prices are set to make new highs.
What to do; Based on the daily chart below, a trader can profit from a movement in price in two ways.
- Prices close below $55 signaling a breakdown, which is also in confluence with a breakdown below the 50 EMA support currently at $55.21. Traders can SELL SHORT with a buy stop just above the top of the channel at $58 with a target price of $46 just above the 200 SMA support.
- Prices close above $58 signaling a breakout of recent consolidation and a continuation of the up-trend. Traders can BUY on a close above $58 with a stop loss just below the bottom of the channel at $55. A trailing stop-loss could then be utilized since no resistance exists above the $58 all-time highs.
Coca Cola (KO) Breaking Out
Coke is breaking out today. 4/9/13, over $40.80 resistance after strongly defending the 20 EMA yesterday to continue its up-trend. The weekly chart below shows the continuation breakout after KO defended its $40 past breakout support level. The MACD is rising along with the RSI which is bullish moving forward.
The daily chart shows the strength in the bounce yesterday off the 20 EMA and $40 support level. The 2% move is very bullish, and prices should continue to appreciate with continued market strength.
February Select SPDR ETF Sector Review
A look back on February’s Select SPDR ETF Sector performance through technical analysis.
See January’s Select SPDR ETF Sector Review HERE!
Performance results; January 30, 2013- March 5, 2013.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
XLY continues to push higher breaking out over $51 resistance toward the end on February. Prices up 3.28% in February.
Consumer Staples (XLP)
XLP was up 4.66% over February continuing its uptrend after breaking out over $36 resistance early January. Prices paused only slightly at $38 before continuing higher. RSI is now pushing into overbought conditions.
Energy (XLE)
XLE lagged in February up only .66% after breaking out over $76 in January. Since then prices have stalled at $79 resistance finding support at the past $76 resistance. MACD showing convergence with the up-trend price action.
Financials (XLF)
Financials stalled slightly at $18 resistance before continuing to push higher. RSI is hitting overbought territory yet again.
Health Care (XLV)
XLV paused momentarily at $43.50 resistance before continuing its uptrend from the December breakout over $41. RSI has stayed overbought for 5 weeks now, prices up 3.18% in February.
Industrials (XLI)
Industrials were up 2.93% in February and continue to push higher after breaking out of the weekly ascending triangle formation. Prices stalled momentarily at $41.50 before continuing the uptrend.
Materials (XLB)
Materials were the worst performer over the month of February losing 1.42%. XLB failed to hold the breakout over $29.50 resistance and fell back lower to defend the $38 support and the weekly 20 EMA. Prices look to retest the $39.50 resistance in near future.
Technology (XLK)
XLK is looking to breakout finally over the $30 resistance to break down the head and shoulders formation. Next resistance lies above at $31.50.
Utilities (XLU)
Utilities were one of the top performers in February up 4.36%. Prices are breaking out over the $37.50 resistance from July 2012 highs.
NEW Additions To The List
Homebuilders Index (XHB)
Homebuilders have been on a storing uptrend since November 2011 and continue to push higher. Prices found recent resistance at $29.50 but look to breakout in March.
Metals & Mining (XME)
XME have been on a downtrend since mid 2011. Toward the end of 2012 prices were forming an ascending triangle formation but support was lost during February. Lower support is at $38. MACD is attempting a bearish crossover and is below the zero line; a bearish indicator.
Mirror Zack’s trades on Marketfy.com through The Technical Breakout Trader.
S&P 500 Technical Breakdown
The Technical Breakout Trader utilizes multiple time-frame analysis to determine high probability setups in the markets. This strategy can be applied to the major market indices to get a feel for the overall market condition and the future direction. Below is a multiple time-frame analysis of the S&P 500.
Weekly Time-frame Analysis;
Stocks have been on a tear since the early January breakout over 1475 resistance from September 2012 highs. Prices are just below the 2007 highs of 1576 sitting at 1514 ending 2/28/13. Last week the SPX printed a weekly doji candle signaling indecision in the market. The MACD is flattening out and selling volume is picking up indicating a pull back may be near. It’s interesting to note the last two pullbacks have found support around the weekly 50 EMA which currently sits at 1414.30.
Daily Time-frame Analysis;
The SPX has been whipping traders up and down looking for direction recently. 1515 was a key resistance level that was broken for 5 trading days before seeing a sell off last Wednesday, 2/20/13 putting it back in its trading range between 1495-1515. The bottom of the range, 1495 was the key support that was compromised on Monday’s sell off only to be regained on Tuesday after price found support at the 50 EMA. Today’s action was very interesting. The market showed continued strength following yesterdays big gain up until the very last 10 minutes of trading before falling slightly below 1515. 1500 is a significant psychological level to watch as well.
Hourly Time-frame Analysis;
Intra-day market analysis on the hourly time-frame shows todays action as mentioned above. 1525 was rejected at the end of the day, and is a key level to watch to be broken for continued upside in the SPX. The MACD is turning down and RSI pointing south indicates the end of day weakness may continue into tomorrow. If so, I believe 1500 will be tested again.
Conclusion;
We need to see prices retake 1515 and breakout over 1525 for more up side in the rally. If this occurs a test of 2007 highs of 1576 is more likely. However, the weekly chart indicates a pullback is becoming more and more probable. If 1500 is broken again, and both the daily 20 & 50 EMA’s break down it would suggest a pull back is happening after all. If so, I would look for support around 1410 the weekly 50 EMA. Until either of these scenarios play out, I expect more choppiness and indecision in the S&P 500.
Technical Analysis On Bank of America
Bank of America attempted to break out over its recent trading range between $11-$12.20 but failed. BAC also attempted to breakdown below $11, but found support. On the weekly chart, BAC is struggling to hold a breakout past its 200 SMA sitting at $11.63. The MACD has posted a bearish crossover on the weekly time frame as well.
The daily chart shows the range between $12.20-$11 I mentioned above. With recent MACD divergence chances are the upside momentum is slowing down. The indecision in the overall market has shown up in BAC price action and should dictate the future outcome of BAC. Should $11 breakdown, $10 should act as lower support. If the $12.20 resistance breaks, a new uptrend will be confirmed on the weekly chart with next resistance around $14.
This One Stock Is Forming A High Porbability Long Setup
Getty Realty Corporation Holding Co. broke its 200 SMA on the weekly chart last week running into overhead resistance at $19.50 from July 2012 highs. MACD is showing divergence in late 2011 now turned into convergence as shares make higher lows, an indicator of an uptrend.
Daily chart confirms $19.50 resistance level. Should the stock breakout above this level, the uptrend should continue representing a high probability long setup. The daily MACD had a bullish cross last week and is showing convergence with the recent price appreciation. GTY is definitely one for the watch list for the coming weeks ahead.
Tiffany and Co (TIF) Breaking Out
TIF has seen recent resistance at $66.50 over the past 6 months. Weekly chart is staging a breakout.
A confirmation of the breakout over $66.50 would warrant a long entry.
Pandora Media Reversal May Be In Play
Pandora has been revolutionary in changing the way consumers listen to music, matching their tastes to similar bands/artists. But, Pandora’s stock has not shown this losing half its value since it’s IPO from $14 to lows of $7.50. Recently consumers and friends of mine have complained about the increased ad interference and new competition from Spotify. Allot of them have already made the switch, sighting numerous additional benefits with Spotify.
However, from a technical point of view Pandora seems to be setting up for a reversal ever since bottoming in November of 2012.
The weekly chart shows a breakout from its downtrend beginning at the IPO, and also a breakout of May/September 2012 highs at $12. The MACD has pushed above the zero line for the first time and RSI remains in bullish territory.
The daily chart shows a similar story. Price broke out over $12 on February 12th and has continued higher stalling at $13.50. Today’s weakness could be viewed as profit taking and may set up another long opportunity in the near future. Technicals paint a rosy picture for the future, but the Spotify competition needs to be taken into account.
Herbalife Debate Icahn vs Ackman-Technical View
HLF has been the center of attention over the past month, and has produced some great trading opportunities. Icahn has declared he is long, while Ackman has publicly called Herbalife a pyramid scheme and is short. Pick a side in the debate over at marketfy! http://marketfy.com/ackman-vs-icahn/
Here is a technical look at HLF
Weekly shows things are looking ugly for HLF shares, recent $45 support was lost after Ackman’s announcement. Shares are fighting to hold the 200 SMA.
Daily channel between $52.50-$45 was broken and shares are fighting to get back that ground. The V dip at the end of December could be only temporary. Its a very debatable stock with both long and short views. Choose your side!
Mirror The Smarter Investor’s trades on Marketfy.com ,with 100% transparent. Check it out here! 30-day risk free money back guarantee, no-questions asked!
United Technology Breaks Out, Uptrend Continues
UTX has gained ~3% since breaking out over June 2011 highs $87.50. RSI has reached the overbought territory on the weekly, but the trend is strong as signaled by the ADX over 20.
Prices on the daily chart stalled at $89.50, forming an ascending triangle continuation pattern before breaking out again today 2/15/13. Its interesting to note the trend strength signaled on the daily ADX at 36. $87.50 should act as support moving forward, and a pullback would be healthy to work off the overbought conditions.
